A Double-Edged Deluge: Why the 2025 Monsoon May Intensify India's Inter-State Water Wars

The India Meteorological Department's forecast of an 'above-normal' 2025 monsoon, while celebrated nationally, is being viewed with cautious apprehension in the corridors of power where inter-state water disputes are managed. An abundant monsoon should ideally ease water-sharing conflicts, but the predicted uneven distribution—with some regions getting excess rain while others face a deficit—threatens to inflame long-standing tensions over river rights. The season could become a critical test for India's cooperative federalism, as states grapple with the dual challenges of flood management and water scarcity. At the heart of the issue is a complex web of historical agreements, political imperatives, and hydrological realities. Disputes like the Cauvery conflict between Tamil Nadu and Karnataka, the Sutlej-Yamuna Link (SYL) canal issue between Punjab and Haryana, and the Krishna river dispute involving Maharashtra, Karnataka, Telangana, and Andhra Pradesh have persisted for decades. These conflicts typically intensify during periods of distress or deficient rainfall. However, an 'above-normal' season with erratic distribution presents a new and complex challenge. Consider the forecast for Northeast India, which is expected to receive 'below-normal' rainfall (below 94% of LPA). This could impact flows in the Brahmaputra and its tributaries, affecting water availability in Assam and neighboring states. Downstream states may demand their full share of water as per existing agreements, while upstream states may argue for reduced outflows citing deficit rainfall in their catchments. "The lack of a unified Brahmaputra River Basin Authority with powers for flood forecasting and water allocation makes the region particularly vulnerable to such conflicts," notes a policy analyst from the Observer Research Foundation. Conversely, regions in Central and Southern India are predicted to receive over 106% of their normal rainfall. This could lead to a different kind of dispute. Upstream states with major dams, like Karnataka and Maharashtra, will face the difficult task of managing reservoir levels to prevent flooding in their own territories. Releasing large volumes of water downstream to create flood cushions could, in turn, cause flooding in lower riparian states like Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh, potentially leading to accusations of mismanagement and demands for compensation. The Cauvery Water Management Authority (CWMA) and other such regulatory bodies will be under immense pressure to ensure releases are calibrated and equitable. "The core of the problem lies in the fact that our water management is still based on political boundaries, not on natural river basins," says a legal expert on water laws. The Inter-State River Water Disputes Act of 1956 was enacted to resolve these issues through tribunals, but the process has been notoriously slow and contentious, with states often refusing to accept tribunal awards. The Inter-State River Water Disputes (Amendment) Bill, which proposes a single, permanent tribunal with stricter timelines, has been pending, highlighting the political inertia surrounding the issue. This year's monsoon could force a re-evaluation of current strategies. With climate change making rainfall patterns more unpredictable, the traditional, rigid water-sharing formulas may no longer be viable. Experts advocate for a move towards integrated river basin management, where all riparian states collaboratively plan for both flood and drought scenarios. "We need dynamic water-sharing protocols that can adapt to real-time rainfall and flow data, rather than relying on historical averages," suggests a researcher from the International Water Management Institute. This would involve greater transparency in data sharing between states and strengthening institutions like the Central Water Commission (CWC) and river basin boards. The 2025 monsoon will therefore be more than just a hydrological event; it will be a political and administrative crucible. How states and the central government navigate the challenges of its uneven bounty will have lasting implications for water governance and federal harmony in an era of increasing climate uncertainty.